Why It Matters:

Businesses must navigate geopolitical tensions, adapt to regional differences, and assess risks when entering or expanding in global markets.

Heartland Theory (Halford Mackinder)

• Core Idea: The "Heartland" (Eastern Europe and Central Asia) is the key to global dominance.
• "Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world."
• Importance: Strategic resources and central location make it critical for global power.

Rimland Theory (Nicholas Spykman)

• Core Idea: Coastal areas surrounding Eurasia (the "Rimland") are more important than the Heartland.
• Coastal control prevents domination of the Heartland and ensures global influence.

Sea Power (Alfred Mahan)

• Core Idea: Control of the seas determines a nation's power.
• Key factors: Strategic naval bases, commercial trade routes, and a powerful navy.

Organic State Theory (Friedrich Ratzel)

• Core Idea: States are like living organisms that grow or decline based on resources, territory, and borders.
• Expansion is natural for survival; static borders signify weakness.

Francis Fukuyama: Liberal democracy as the endpoint of ideological evolution.

Samuel Huntington: Post-Cold War conflicts arise between cultural blocs.

John Mearsheimer: States seek regional dominance; global anarchy fosters competition.

Maritime Disputes:

• South China Sea: China's expansionist policies via artificial islands and claims over Spratly Islands.
• Strategic importance for trade routes and energy reserves.

Regional Conflicts:

• Russia-Ukraine War: Geopolitical realignments affecting energy markets and European security.
• Middle East: Sunni vs. Shia conflicts destabilizing oil-rich regions.

Geopolitical Zones of Crush:

• Arctic: New territorial claims due to melting ice and emerging resources.
• China-India: Border disputes in the Himalayas (Ladakh region).

Economic Disruptions:

• Trade barriers, sanctions, and embargoes.
• Supply chain vulnerabilities (e.g., semiconductor shortages).

Market Perception:

• China's rise as a global leader is coupled with distrust (Pew 2020 polls).
• U.S. influence waning; EU strengthening internal trade alliances.

Strategic Adaptation:

• Companies must diversify supply chains and markets to mitigate risks.

China:

• Belt & Road Initiative: Infrastructure investments in Asia, Africa, and Europe to expand influence.
• Cybersecurity as a critical front in geopolitical competition.

Russia:

• Advocates Eurasian integration to counterbalance NATO and Western dominance.
• Geopolitical focus on controlling resources and securing borders.

Germany:

• Post-WWII guilt shaping modern pacifism.
• Economic powerhouse within the EU, advocating multilateralism.

• 80% of global trade relies on maritime routes.
• Key Commodities: Crude oil, natural gas, iron ore, and coal.
• Strategic Choke Points:
• Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal, Suez Canal.
• Control of these routes equals significant global influence.